Despite a short-term increase in the rates of the major cryptocurrencies over the past 24 hours, we should not expect much from them both by the end of this week and by the end of the first summer month. Much to the joy of the "bears" and the continuing depression of the "bulls" of the cryptocurrency market, it is likely that by the end of the month we will see an update of the minimum values for this year on a wide range of cryptocurrencies, as well as the total capitalization of the entire market.
At the moment, the situation on the cryptocurrency market can be described with confidence as stagnation with a lack of desire to buy. If at the end of last month the market turnover amounted to $20 to 22 billion per day, today it is only $11 to 12 billion. That is, the decline was more than 44% (two times).
This factor clearly indicates the lack of demand and, in principle, any desire to buy, as well as the lack of influx of new money into the market. Trading volumes on the leading crypto exchanges (taking into account the active work of the "bots,” which multiply and artificially increase these trades) have fallen substantially, and at the moment, the main trading platforms have no more than $1.2 billion per day, while those values previously amounted to $2 billion or more.
Based on the above data, we can safely state a decrease in volumes up to 90% for some major crypto exchanges and more than 50% for exchanges in general.
The latest data on the first three crypto exchanges, based on daily trading volume:
All this suggests that interest in the cryptocurrency market has fallen significantly, and the lack of those willing to buy Bitcoin and altcoins directly affects the exchange value of the latter to the U.S. dollar.
Bitcoin (BTC), as expected, strengthened from $6,730 to $6,830 in the first three days of the last week, but this movement was only within the framework of a small correction after the impulse and, I must say, the continuing decline of the week before. In the first month of summer, Bitcoin will close its chart to the U.S. dollar with a red solid candle in the region of $5,850 to $5,500, touching even $5,400.
And no matter what schedules and compound forecasts are given by experts, the reasons for this fall are surprisingly simple. From a technical analysis point of view, this is a continuing bearish downtrend. In the medium term, it started from the beginning of May, when the price just barely reached the coveted point of $10,000, and in the global long-term downtrend that began in the second week of January 2018.
This news gives no confidence in the imminent coming of tomorrow's "bright cryptocurrency future" either and, despite some moderate positivity of the current agenda (for example, the SEC does not plan to classify Bitcoin and Ethereum as securities, and EOS successfully launched its own blockchain after some malfunctions), there are still cases of fraud and scams. This includes the largest crypto exchanges (the last case with the theft of $30 million from the Bithumb exchange) that are still on the market and do not add to the confidence of market participants, and have certainly not attracted new players capable of providing stable and long-term growth. At the same time, there are also no prerequisites for a reversal. Perhaps, they will appear in the price range of $5,000 to $5,500, which may happen by the middle or the end of next month, but it is too early to speculate about this, and we still expect a further fall in the prices of Bitcoin.
It is no secret to anyone that 95% of the market follows "Daddy,” as the old-timers sometimes call Bitcoin. Ether, the second most important and popular cryptocurrency, largely floats in the mainstream of the Bitcoin’s denominated rate with the only difference being that its volatility is about 2 times higher, and at the moment, its graph looks slightly better to the U.S. dollar. Nevertheless, we should not expect that the current correction to the global trend for a decline will allow Ether to again overcome the $600 mark in the near future. Most likely, it will soon end, and by the end of the week, we will see Ether below the current levels of $460 to $500, and the second most important cryptocurrency can finish the first summer month in the range of $450 to $400 or possibly even below this psychological mark of $400. Much to the satisfaction of the skeptics and some discouragement of the apologists of the cryptocurrency market, we should note that the further outlook for Ether is not bright at all, and the prerequisites for a possible reversal (at the moment) are only slightly distinguishable in the $270 to $300 range for 1 ETH. Most likely, this will also happen no earlier than the end of the summer.
According to the structure of its current movement, both Bitcoin, Ether, and the overwhelming majority of the cryptocurrency market, with rare exceptions, are under the scheme accumulated upward correction of a sharp downward momentum, and in the medium term, this trend continues on the weekly charts without much basis to it.
But some cannons can still fire in a dramatically falling and moderately stagnant market. And while this is basically just a small number of new infrastructure blockchain projects (such as QuarkChain, Seele, or Pchain) coming out with their first listings on the largest crypto exchange sites and making their own 5, 10, or 15 Xs from the ICO price. By the way, it has become very difficult to get onto their whitelists and be one of the lucky few admitted to the ICOs of these projects. Moreover, they do not lend themselves to qualitative technical analysis due to the very small history of exchange trades. But there are some "defensive" assets that have proved their worth for a long time, and in the current unfavorable conditions, when the absolute majority of assets are falling, they are showing an inverse correlation with the general market and, accordingly, some good growth.
Admittedly, one of our favorite coins is BNB's own commercial token, of Binance, one of the largest cryptocurrency exchanges. In its ongoing upward trend, it has approached the next resistance zone of $16.8 to $17.6 per unit, the successful overcoming and consolidation above which in the very near future will open the way for it $19 to $20 per unit and further, much higher, up to the update of new maximum values. Promoting this growth is not only the fact that the company is constantly burning its tokens quarterly, or withdrawing of some of the coins from circulation, but also some other fundamentally positive events, such as the signing of agreements between the exchange and a bank, and the possible start of acceptance of fiat. In addition, there is the planned opening of margin trading and, in some more distant future, the transfer of BNB tokens to its own blockchain, as well as the launch of its own decentralized trading platform. In addition, one must always take into account that it is unlikely that successfully managed exchanges are interested in a possible "dump" of their own cryptocurrency and will continue to support its policy in a (as of yet) not overly-regulated market.
If one does not have USDT and is dealing with cryptos, then it is not a problem, as the BNB chart to Bitcoin or Ether (see the bottom figure, but the graphs are identical) is currently even more preferable for purchase and is showing some current correction after rapid growth allowing for the possibility of purchasing the coin at a more favorable rate.
We will consider the commercial coins of other major crypto exchanges next time. Believe me, the graphs of their prices are no less attractive, and the earning potential is much higher in comparison with the already quite expensive BNB.