Within the framework of the given op-ed, Pavel Shchipanov, head of the ICBF analysis and research group, talks about the current situation with the cost of the main cryptocurrencies and also gives forecasts for the future.
The whales of the crypto market have complete control over all movements of Bitcoin, and now it obediently moves up and down at their will. Along with it, the altcoins also demonstrate declining dynamics, and the traders do not yet have an understanding of where the "bottom" is. A period of logical disappointment set in after an unexpected decision for the "optimistic" outset of the market in July to postpone the application for the creation of the VanEck SolidX Bitcoin ETF filed by financial corporations from the Chicago Board Options Exchange (Cboe). The price of Bitcoin on leading crypto exchanges began to drop to $6,000, where it is at the time of writing this review, from the July 25 high at around $8,500. It is this level that will give an understanding to traders about the prospects for further movements. Everything is turning into a “battle for Stalingrad,” if we make a metaphorical comparison. It is from this stage that either the further collapse of the crypto market can start, or the trend can unfold and send the entire market “to the moon.”
Let us feed no emotions, as is being done now by many studies published on forums and posts in Telegram channels, as we will understand the factors which can influence the dynamics of the market. The readiness of the SEC to make a positive decision regarding the application from Cboe on September 30 may play in favor of a positive scenario for the development of trading. The degree of confidence in the onset of this event is very high and reaches 90 percent. And it should be noted that professional traders have such a rule: "Buy the rumor, sell the news." Below is a screenshot of the price movement of Bitcoin from January to early December 2017. As you can see, in the past year, the demand for the first cryptocurrency increased instantly threefold after news appeared in the media and a correction began at the same time, promptly at the time of publication of the news.
In addition to the ETF launch topic, the application remains valid from another, no-less-well-known U.S. exchange, the NYSE, which may be considered next week on August 23. But, most likely, discussions will be postponed to September 30 to make a final decision after a detailed study of all the factors. The refusal of consideration will give an opportunity for another decline, but as we approach September 30, the investors who feel optimistic about this event will start to open more positions for purchase.
Now, there are factors in the market that can lead to a further collapse, and the level of $6,000 may not become a "floating straw" for saving the investors. The fact is that it is in the area of this level that the lows of 2018 are located, so it saved Bitcoin from an even greater decline in value at the time of the collapse. The flow of negative news headlines declined, but they were replaced by comments from leading industry experts. Nick Szabo expressed extremely negative outlooks about the plan to approve Bitcoin ETFs, noting the high risks and accompanying problems in connection with the arrival of funds from Wall Street. The rumors about the simultaneous sale by ICO projects of Ethers collected by them during the private sales of tokens and open crowd sales. According to the experts, the number of simultaneously sold Ethers has exceeded 100,000 over the last 30 days. In part, this can be a panic sale, but there is a possibility that even experts are losing confidence in the positive prospects of the market.
Now, let us see what is happening on the Bitcoin graph. The support level at $6,200 was successfully overcome, and the traders fell into the trap of the “channel” analysis model. The resistance now sits at $6,200 with periodic attempts to go up to $6,400 and $6,500. Support for the current consolidation is the region of values from $5,850 to $6,020. Preserving strength at the impulse for sale below $5,800 will open the way for a collapse to the minimum values of October and November at $5,500 and $5,300.
From current levels, a short-term corrective rebound to $6,500 is also possible, and if the support is broken, then we should expect a movement to the area $6,670 to $6,800. The fixation of several day candles above this level will be a signal for the beginning of the market recovery. And the next goals in case of overcoming $6,800 will be the recently overcome levels of $7,000, $7,260, and $7,500.
Within the last two weeks, Bitcoin demonstrates complete uncertainty in movements, as it may seem at first glance. But this is not so! This is a clear game of luring. Note how quickly the volumes are growing to buy, then immediately to sell, and there is a collection of stop orders. This is a game traditional for the currency and stock market in the form of "luring" to one side with a sharp sale of assets, which investors start to believe and buy on the exchange. Therefore, today there is a recommendation for novice investors to refrain from investing in Bitcoin and even more so in altcoins. For a conservative investor who has Ether in a cold wallet or on the exchange, you can offer to consider ICO projects, and also continue to closely monitor the dynamics of exchange prices. And only if the market starts to unfold confidently, then it is possible to start actively buying up cryptocurrencies, because this market in the coming years can give a chance to buy a "lambo.”
Ether and Other Altcoins
Ether completely realized the break from a pennant and suspended the decline only in the region of $300 after overcoming the targets at the levels of $340 and $360. Now they are resistances, and a potential correction to the top in the event of a rebound to $300 can lead to their achievement. The continuation of the Bitcoin collapse will open the way for a decline to $250 and a trend reversal area of $193 to $200.