A number of experts leading the opinions of the cryptocurrency community have begun to openly express doubt that the crypto coins have a promising future. Crypto enthusiast Michael Nye, crypto analyst Alex Kruger, and even eToro’s well-known analyst Mati Greenspan shared their disappointing forecasts. Why is this happening, and what awaits us tomorrow?
“Bitcoin Will Either Die or Reach $500,000.”
On March 7, crypto enthusiast Michael Nye said that “We have to remember, $crypto might not survive.” This statement looks very challenging, considering that over the last few years, Nye has spent most of his life traveling to different countries and continents talking to people about what the future of cryptocurrencies is like and what is worth investing in. He is still doing it, but what does his statement mean? In fact, the situation is explained quite simply. A detailed study of Nye’s Twitter account leads us to the conclusion that he has invested in a number of cryptocurrencies, many of which were acquired at greater values than they are now. While waiting for the market to rise, it’s obvious that the investor is starting to lose his nerve.
Another analyst, Pierre Rochard of New York, announced on March 8 that “Bitcoin is an experiment and can fail at any time.” This expert’s statement is surprisingly combined with another one: “Hyperbitcoinization. $500k+/BTC.” Obviously, Rochard is not convinced.
eToro’s chief strategic analyst Mati Greenspan also surprised everyone. On March 7, he unexpectedly predicted that “Should it [BNB, the native digital asset of the Binance crypto exchange] maintain this rate of exponential growth, it will take about six months to overtake Bitcoin’s market cap (red line).” And it could be considered some kind of extravagant point of view, but the founder of the Tron altcoin, Justin Sun, who diligently protects his leadership in this project and tries in every way to promote it, suddenly called Binance coin the new Bitcoin: “Huge Congrats on $BNB, a new #Bitcoin❤.”
It is hard to imagine that well-known opinion leaders would think to see some alternative to Bitcoin, given that even the disappearance of Satoshi Nakamoto most clearly emphasizes the decentralized nature of this cryptocurrency, in contrast to the projects, which are clearly led by specific individual founders and organizations. This does not mean that all other tokens, except Bitcoin, are not needed, as Bitcoin maximalists say: even the appearance of centralized crypto coins like JPM Coin can eventually generate additional interest in Bitcoin itself.
“Satoshi Nakamoto Will Be Disappointed in Bitcoin”
Moreover, a detailed analysis of the forecasts of Mati Greenspan shows that he was not just “suddenly” inspired by the rally of one of the altcoins, in this case, Binance Coin, but he assumes that even Satoshi Nakamoto himself may be disappointed in Bitcoin! This idea is prompted by the message of Greenspan, in which he declares that “On the off chance that Satoshi is still out there (not to name any names) and at some point decides to dump his coins on the market, that’s a dip that I would definitely buy.” This statement means the following: at some point, the “crypto winter” may cause the desire to say goodbye to Bitcoin even from the most persistent investors in it and the owners of the largest wallets. The fact that Greenspan “would definitely buy” says that, according to the analyst of eToro, Bitcoin is quite possibly not at the bottom yet to start buying it up now. And the real “bottom” will be at extremely low levels when practically no one enters the market with asset purchases. In fact, this scenario looks very possible in Greenspan’s mind.
What is going on? Pessimism is overwhelming. Crypto analyst Alex Kruger cites statistics that the activity of the cryptocurrency community on Twitter, one of the main points for crypto enthusiasts, is now at a lower level than in 2015. As if addressing the answer to the popular question: “And what will happen next with cryptocurrencies?” the analyst answers indirectly: “Crypto Twitter has already capitulated.” Meanwhile, the statistics given here, as analyst Matt Odell notes, are not confirmed, oddly enough, just by how many likes and retweets Kruger’s post got. As the head of Binance Changpeng Zhao recognized, for example, he still receives most of the information flow from Twitter.
Cryptocurrency Turnover That Nobody Knows About
Formally, there is a lot of uncertainty in the cryptocurrency environment. Positive news about various innovations and the approximation of cryptocurrencies to institutional investors have almost completely ceased to influence the market. The question of the ratio of the speed of centralized and decentralized sites is yet unclear. On the one hand, most of the bullish analysts are now convinced of the fact that the turnover of centralized platforms has risen to a record since the end of 2017, from $10 billion at the end of 2018 to almost $35 billion on average per day. Such a significant increase is confirmed by the March analytical report of SFOX on the results of February. The head of the Bitacium crypto exchange Richard Yusman says that according to his information, “98% of all operations with cryptocurrencies are conducted through such platforms.”
Is there real growth in cryptocurrency trading turnover? Another study presented by the Crypto Integrity project claims that 88% of the total turnover of centralized sites has nothing to do with reality. Similarly, Yusman’s statement can be questioned since the share of decentralized cryptocurrency trade is in any case above 2%.
It is worth paying attention to the feature of trading digital assets. The fact is that cryptocurrency trading can occur through proxies, that is, through proxies who can sell access to their digital wallets, as well as mortgage them. This approach can be used by countries whose companies are, for example, under U.S. sanctions. Thus, it is impossible to find out what the actual volume of cryptocurrency turnover is, because, in order to use them, it is not necessary to move them from one address to another in the same way as, for example, circulation of securities on Wall Street is built on % based on receipts issued by the DTS depository. But if such receipts for securities are taken into account, then the circulation of similar documents, including digital ones and not necessarily on the blockchain, is not subject to accounting. The spread of digital payments can occur at any time, just as smoothly as a knife cuts through butter. The convenience of making a two-click transfer of funds in a decentralized cryptocurrency quickly, reliably, and at a minimal cost is the level of financial comfort that no one can resist.
The Fate of Cryptocurrencies Does Not Depend on Their Price: They Are Intended for Greater Purposes
At the same time, the very nature of decentralized financial transactions means that if the demand for cryptocurrencies does not necessarily increase, their price will increase, as the law of supply and demand only works in a centralized economy, which has a “gravity force” of money represented by the regulator. In decentralized finance, that is not so.
It is obvious that the functionality of such cryptocurrencies as a means of value accumulation (for future retirement, for example), as well as their transactional potential, will eventually force out the prevailing motive for buying crypto coins today. As crypto enthusiast Andreas Antonopoulos said, “Now the only incentive to buy cryptocurrencies is speculation on them.” The expert noted that “a significant number of those who own them now do not really need them.” The situation, however, is changing before our eyes, as only 27% of cryptocurrency holders were able to resist and not carry out transactions with them during 2018, as stated in the FIO study.
Indeed, if we use cryptocurrencies for transactions, given that the speed of such operations becomes almost instantaneous, then no exchange rate of digital assets can be an obstacle to the development of these properties. And this means that there can be no reason for pessimism in any view of the state of the cryptocurrency market since cryptocurrencies clearly appeared for more than just receiving income from the growth of their price. In a situation where fiat is dying off and decentralized digital assets are beginning to take its place, the meaning of calculating the fiat rate of cryptocurrencies will gradually disappear, as no one considers the price, for example, of gold in boulders and shells, which were once human history. As the well-known economist and historian Niall Ferguson recently admitted, the entire history of the development of the world’s monetary system confirms that Bitcoin, as a vivid embodiment of the principles of decentralized assets, is a natural step in the evolution of fiat.