The availability of various forecasts in the market, which do not always come true, attests to the interest in cryptocurrency prices. This interest is constantly growing, and with it, the demand for analytics is also increasing. The Binance crypto exchange and entrepreneur John McAfee recently launched their own resources for predicting the dynamics of cryptocurrencies. They will create competition for CoinMarketCap.
Secondly, unsuccessful forecasts are a sign of the maturity of the market. A lot of unrealized predictions have accumulated in the world of traditional finance. For example, almost all analysts on the eve of the last presidential election in the U.S. gave a forecast about the fall of the key indices of the American stock market in case of a victory by Donald Trump. This did not happen, the indices climbed to historic highs, and the total capitalization increase was $5 trillion. There are also analysts, such as Jim Rogers or former U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, who predict the impending "collapse" of financial "bubbles" on Wall Street with enviable regularity. Nothing has happened yet. There are enough "oracles," foreshadowing the collapse of the U.S. dollar both across the ocean and in Russia.
In general, there are various forecasts in the market of cryptocurrencies. Negative, as, for example, those made by Nouriel Roubini, who predicts the collapse of the cryptocurrency market. Even such crypto skeptics can change their minds. Nobel laureate in economics Paul Krugman, who for a long time did not perceive cryptocurrencies as something serious, finally admitted that, firstly, he "only halfway understands" the phenomenon, and secondly, declared that if you compare Bitcoin and gold, Bitcoin will be even better than this "dead" precious metal in terms of monetary functionality. In addition, another important observation was made that by now, there have been 309 predictions of the "death" of Bitcoin, which never came true.
Therefore, there is an important reason for the positive forecasts, as Bitcoin and most cryptocurrencies are alive and continue to develop, although, for example, Jared Tate, the founder of DigiByte, predicts that only Bitcoin, Litecoin, and his own cryptocurrency will survive.
There Is No Depression in the Market
Of course, the forecasts about Bitcoin draw the most attention, as this cryptocurrency has more than half of the market capitalization, in addition, in the case of a significant rise in the price of this asset, this will cause the growth of most altcoins with a greater degree of probability. The minimum of the current year was observed on June 29 at $5,886. Compared with the historical maximum, which was fixed on December 17 last year at $20,089, Bitcoin lost $14,203, or 70.7 percent.
The current downward correction of the Bitcoin price is accompanied by significant rebounds in May when Bitcoin was approaching the $10,000 mark, and this week it is trying to gain a foothold above the level of $7,000. Even the well-known expert Boris Schlossberg, who is very skeptical about growth forecasts, stated that Bitcoin can penetrate a level of $8,000 in the foreseeable future.
Such dynamics put an end to the idea that the cryptocurrency market "was seized by the strongest depression." There is no depression. In addition, if we assume that the current correction ended on June 29, it lasted 194 days. In the history of Bitcoin, there has already been a longer correction, which lasted from November 30, 2013 to January 14, 2015, and was accompanied by an 85-percent drop in the cryptocurrency rate. By the way, there were two more temporary-yet-shorter periods, when Bitcoin sagged even more by 94 percent. This took place from September 14 to October 8, 2010, and also from June 8 to November 17, 2011. As analyst Charlie Shrem correctly notes, most investors in cryptocurrencies are non-professional traders, and therefore, they are sure that there must always be a move up. Shrem admitted that he bought Bitcoins at a price ranging from $5,000 to $6,000, but is not selling them, because he is confident in further growth, though he does not specify dates or specific values.
Some Analysts Corrected the Forecast for Bitcoin Downward. Why?
Meanwhile, there are those who give accurate forecasts on the market of cryptocurrencies. And it is clear that some "bullish" forecasts have been corrected recently. Analysts explain this by the fact that they have further studied the market, although it is possible that some of them simply lost their nerves, and they decided to hedge and underestimate the results of their previous research. The former investment banker from JPMorgan, Tom Lee, initially expected that Bitcoin would rise to $25,000 before the end of the year, later announced a correction of the forecast by 20 percent, but eventually returned to the previous figure.
Perhaps, a revision of forecasts for some is a game of downward corrections in the interests of institutional investors who have long "trampled" the cryptocurrency thresholds and now would like to enter the market at serious lows. This may also be caused by the appearance of a large number of bets on the further decline of Bitcoin in August. Suddenly, the analyst of CNBC channel Jim Cramer said that "the crest is rising against Bitcoin," so in mid-August, he took a bearish position on the cryptocurrency, expecting it to fall, although, in June, he was talking about a bull trend and saw a target of $1 million.
In addition, partner of Morgan Creek Capital Management Anthony Pompliano rejected his forecast that Bitcoin will hit $50,000 by the end of the year. Now, he believes that four years and four months must pass before Bitcoin reaches this level. Pompliano abandoned the forecast after appearing in the middle of summer having disappeared from social networks for some time. At the end of July, he confirmed his initial forecast, but a month later, he changed his point of view, and now he calls to prepare for Bitcoin at $3,000 in the short term. Another interesting touch to this metamorphosis of Pompliano's predictions lies in the fact that in his correspondence with Twitter users he previously made it clear that he himself does not invest in cryptocurrencies, preferring to invest in "infrastructure." Meanwhile, Pompliano's colleague at Morgan Creek Capital Management and the head of this organization, Mark Yusko, confirmed in July the forecast for Bitcoin at $25,000 by the end of the year and now adheres to it. Even within the same organization, top management has different points of view on the issue, as Pompliano expects Bitcoins at $3,000 in the coming months, thereby giving investors a hint of a way out of the cryptocurrency and fixing profits, while Yusko, on the contrary, says that the cryptocurrency will show more than 100-percent yield in the coming months, giving a signal to buy Bitcoin.
Investor Phillip Nunn also decided to adjust his forecast for Bitcoin. In his opinion, Bitcoin will rise in price to $60,000, not necessarily by the end of the year, but, possibly, with a delay of several months. Expert Ari Paul decided to state that he was misunderstood when he gave a figure of $60,000 at the beginning of the year, as it was a question of the possible high volatility of Bitcoin, which he thus demonstrated, saying that the cryptocurrency would drop to $6,000 and rise in price from this level by 10 times. By the way, the first part of his forecast has already come true, but Paul modestly argues that we do not need to wait to get lucky, and the second part of the forecast will come true in time.
Bitcoin from $50,000 to $100,000 before the End of the Year Is Quite Possible
The figure of $50,000 was not left alone, as Arthur Hayes, the founder of BitMEX's crypto exchange, believes that Bitcoin will grow to this level by the end of the year. According to the analyst, however, it must "sink" to a level of $5,000. Naeem Aslam, the strategist of the London-based ThinkMarkets company, is also aimed at $50,000, but without any reservations about preliminary downward movement. Analyst Hassan Alanazi believes that by November 26 this year, Bitcoin will rise in price to $75,000.
Some analysts give a more modest forecast than $75,000. For example, the Pantera Capital investment fund expects $20,000 from Bitcoin by the end of the year. Analyst Max Keizer expects $28,000, billionaire Marc Lasry gives a forecast of $40,000. Analyst Liina-Laas Billson expects about 30,000 British pounds sterling for Bitcoin ($38,500) by the end of the year. $60,000 is not even the limit. John Pfeffer ($75,000) and Kay Van-Petersen ($100,000) did not revise their forecasts. The head of the Binance crypto exchange, Changpeng Zhao, is sure that the current bearish phase of Bitcoin has come to an end, and the upcoming upswing will be "very significant."
In the Future, Bitcoin Will Be Much More Expensive
Given the dynamics of growth of Bitcoin in previous years, it is not surprising that the forecasts for several years ahead indicate a multifold increase in the value of this cryptocurrency. John McAfee predicts that by 2020, Bitcoin will cost $1 million. The Winklevoss brothers predict that by this time, the cryptocurrency will grow to $320,000. There is Alistair Milne, who expects that by 2020, Bitcoin will show a more modest result ranging from $35,000 to $65,000. In the longer term, by 2022, Tim Draper predicts Bitcoin at $250,000.
Brian Kelly is also guided by the same figure. Analysts at What's On Crypto believe that because of the reduction in the reward for the production of blocks in the network, Bitcoin will grow to $10 million by 2023. There are more modest predictions, as Peter Smith, co-founder of Blockchain, and partner of Lightspeed Jeremy Lew see Bitcoin at $500,000 by 2030.
Why Bullish Forecasts Seem Believable
The forecasts of Bitcoin’s growth do not seem exaggerated. The experience of the Pantera Capital fund, which showed more than a hundredfold increase in the value of its cryptocurrency portfolio in five years, allows us to pay attention to their forecast, as in just a few months, it was $20,000, and by the end of 2019, $67,500. Another fund, CoinCorner, is focusing on the growing interest of investors in cryptocurrencies, as they expect a price of at least $15,000 for Bitcoin by the end of the year, as stated by Danny Scott, co-founder of the organization. Indeed, the turnover of deals with Bitcoin has already exceeded the volume of payments through PayPal, and given the dynamics, it will overtake the revenue of such a company as VISA by 2022. Tom Lee’s brother, Bobby, the owner of the BTCC crypto exchange, is sure that Bitcoin will reach $77,000 "in a few years." Bobby builds his forecast on increasing electricity costs while mining Bitcoin and talks about a minimum rising figure of the price of Bitcoin to $60,000.
New projects in the field of mining, in which billions of dollars are being invested, the maximum size of the hash rate, and the spread of trade through decentralized platforms indicate that the demand for a limited amount of this asset (a maximum of 21 million units) means that Bitcoin is doomed to grow, which in this case will be accompanied by cyclical downturns. And, by the way, such dynamics are clearly not to the liking of Wall Street.