Fearing the introduction of new sanctions and the further depreciation of the local currency, the Iranians spent more than $2.5 billion on the purchase of cryptocurrencies in order to withdraw funds abroad or at least not to lose their savings. After the announcement of Donald Trump regarding the withdrawal of the US from the "nuclear deal,” the Iranian rial fell from 57,500 per U.S. dollar to 85,000. Then followed sanctions aimed at the economic isolation of the Islamic republic from the rest of the world under the pretext of blocking the financial channels through which the country financed Hezbollah and prohibitions against the head of the Iranian Central Bank. In an attempt to prevent the further decline in the national currency's value, the authorities started introducing restrictions on exchange operations, and the amounts allowed for export abroad were seriously reduced. Such actions on the part of the government force citizens to transfer their savings into cryptocurrencies. And if we consider that the currency crisis has just begun, we will continue to witness a massive purchase of coins.
As for the technical side, the prices of Bitcoin have been moving in a triangle pattern over the last few months as the highs (the maximum price peaks) are decreasing, while the minimum mark of $6,000 continues to resist the "bears.” The unsuccessful attempts to break above the $10,000 mark, or a 200-day moving average (200 MA), have led to a drop in prices to 50 MA, where Bitcoin looks seriously oversold in the short term. In this regard, it is quite logical to expect a quick rebound of the resistance rate in the region of $9,200 to $9,500 and an exit from the existing triangle with further targets of $12,000 and $14,000. Given the recent drop in prices, however, which occurred when absolutely everything seemed to indicate rapid growth, one should approach the opening of speculative positions very carefully. If market participants continue to sell Bitcoin so actively, then the next opportunity for purchase will open at $8,200 and $7,700.
Judging by the recent COT Report: BITCOIN-USD—CBOE FUTURES EXCHANGE publication on open positions in futures, the majority of players continue to close their short positions. Thus, the number of margin positions has decreased by almost a third since April, except for dealers and market makers, who are not yet active.