In his author’s column, Pavel Shchipanov, the head of the ICBF analysis and research group, tells us when and under what conditions the rate of Bitcoin is expected to rise, as well as what is happening to ETH and XRP.
The cryptocurrency market is still in fever, and this is evident from attempts to squeeze support levels of key assets. The ongoing battle of the bulls and bears is reminiscent not of an epic born of Hollywood, but the brainchild of its Indian counterpart Bollywood. Also, there are plenty of dances, and a lot of scandalous headlines about attempted murder (here we mean the poisoning of world-class crypto enthusiast John McAfee), suspensions of the functionalities of some exchanges, Bitcoin extortion attempts, and the increasing sophistication of hacker attacks on companies associated with cryptos. All of this is deterring new investments in Bitcoin, Ether, and other equally-attractive altcoins.
The latest surveys of millionaires may encourage the growth of the cryptocurrencies market, as the results showed the interest of such individuals in investing in innovative projects in the current year, and that some have already carried out such transactions earlier. Another example in favor of the buyers can be a simple comparison of the current dynamics of rates with the same summer period in 2017. All of these facts together can at least suspend the current decline. And this is only the very beginning of the "crypto thaw.”
As you can see, the trading volumes showed a steady decline in the previous year, as did the cost of Bitcoin. As of June 27, another indicator, the market capitalization rate, was at a record low this year at $244 billion, although exactly six months ago it was more than two times higher at $548 billion, according to CoinMarketCap. In analogy with the previous year, I would like to note the saying "sell in May and go away" popular in the US stock market. Indeed, before the summer, one of the best strategies was to sell the existing Bitcoins, or even earn on opening a short position. But is it not the right time to reflect on the approaching opportunities of making a profit on purchases?
And now I propose that we take a look at how the situation in the crypto market has changed for the week since the publication of the previous review and note the earning possibilities.
Earlier, we noted a propensity for further decline for the graph of Bitcoin, and the downward semiannual trend is not broken yet. Current support is represented by the minimum values of 2018 in the region of $5,882 to $6,000. There is still a struggle ahead for its recovery, but in case of success, one should expect a gradual decrease to the levels of $5,500 and $5,300 (23.6% of the Fibonacci correction line from the maximum value in December). An additional signal in favor of this option is the closure of the weekly and June candles below $5,882.
But it is quite possible that the whole movement is nearing completion and very soon we will see an upward turn. Two conditions have to be fulfilled to achieve this: the arrival of large capital (preferably institutional investors in the form of investment banks and world-renowned funds) and confident rises in the price to $8,000 to $8,500. Modest optimism is granted by news about Facebook's readiness to allow advertising of cryptocurrencies in the social network, as well as rumors about the readiness of the same site to buy Coinbase, one of the world's largest crypto exchanges.
Competition with Bitcoin in relation to its fall is consistently led by Ether, which is a slightly less liquid coin. If at the beginning of the month there was an attempt to break above the value of $600, then the "hodlers" of Ether are only recalculating their losses closer to the end of the first summer month. And there will be few "optimistic notes" for them in this review, as many as there are craters on the moon. The rapid decline continues, and it threatens to reach a region of $360 to $415. Also, we should orient ourselves to the possibility of testing the line below $340, which is a 23.6% correction along the lines of the Fibonacci proportion.
We will add a spoonful of honey here, too, in the form of an opportunity to form a "bear luring" model and a "descending wedge" (borders are indicated by purple lines) model of technical analysis. Analysis of the charts is based on finding repetitions and making profit by entering the market in anticipation of another duplication. Therefore, the most attentive players can compare the lines of the larger "wedge" on the left. As you can see, the price went up from there, so there is a chance for the recovery of rates. Specific goals for such a movement will be indicated when confirmation signals are received for such an event.
At first glance, this coin is unremarkable and moves with almost 100% recurrence of the dynamics of Bitcoin and is similarly demonstrating a fall in the conditions of the general market collapse.
But not everything is as simple as it seems at first glance. After all, there were lots of rumors circulating around this project during the last weeks. Experienced investors, both in the stock market and in the crypto market, know that rumors are an opportunity to earn the most. And one such rumor is a message about the possible use of the Ripple blockchain by Alibaba, the leading company in the retail goods supply market. Its subsidiary Alipay has already successfully reduced payment speeds to three seconds between Hong Kong and the Philippines. In addition, no less pleasant for XRP holders is the rumor about the readiness of the Coinbase exchange to list this coin.
It is worth considering the inclusion of Ripple in the list of assets for long-term investment on the basis of the latest news. In the coming weeks, rates may fall in the region of $0.41 (11.4% level on the Fibonacci lines), provided the successful downward overcoming of the support at $0.46. Most likely, however, even $0.41 will not be able to restrain the appetites of "sellers" and at some moment the price may stoop even lower.