The rate of Bitcoin and many other cryptocurrencies continues to fall and set anti-records at lows. Now the price of the first digital currency is less than $3,400, and, in fact, crypto enthusiasts promised gold mountains and indicators with numerous zeros by the end of 2018. Almost everyone was wrong with the forecast, from ordinary investors to well-known analysts. Who promised what for the cost of Bitcoin at the end of December this year? Let’s start building our ranking of erroneous forecasts in increasing order of magnitude.
Tom Lee: $15,000–$25,000 by the end of 2018
Financial analyst and co-founder of Fundstrat Global Investors Tom Lee, who became famous for his bullish Bitcoin predictions at the end of November 2018, said that the first digital asset could reach $15,000, no matter what. In May this year, the analyst was confident that one BTC would cost $25,000 in December, but after the ongoing recession, he revised his forecast for the end of the year and adjusted it to $22,000.
“Bitcoin has fallen below the psychological mark of $6,000, and this caused a new wave of pessimism. But we believe that a large part of the recession is the result of the pessimistic mood of the investors, and not fundamental factors,” as Lee commented his assumptions in an interview with CNBC.
This price of Bitcoin at $15,000 comes from the so-called break-even point when the value of the coin corresponds to the cost of mining. According to Lee, the main digital asset should be 2.5 times more expensive than its mining process. Therefore, the negative trend that prevails in the market does not frighten the analyst at all.
Ronnie Moas: $26,000–$50,000 in 2018, and up from $200,000 in the future
When Bitcoin reached almost $20,000 in 2017, renowned financial analyst, head of Standpoint Research investment company Ronnie Moas, said that by the end of 2018, the value of the asset, taking into account all corrections, would be $50,000. Earlier, the analyst stated that BTC would cost no more than $26,000. And the rate in the future, according to Moas, will reach $200,000.
“When I entered the industry with $50,000 at a rate of $2,570, I knew that Bitcoin would reach the very top. If I had told people that the first coin would cost $200,000–$300,000 in the future [not in 2018], then the people around me would have thought I was a druggie,” said Moas in 2017 in an interview with Cointelegraph.
It is no coincidence that Moas chose the $26,000 mark. This amount was adjusted on the basis of incoming news. Bitcoin, as the financial analyst said then, “smashed all obstacles that had arisen along its way” and continued to grow.
Ronnie Moas also made a long-term assumption on the value of all digital coins. In August 2017, the analyst said that the capitalization of existing assets would grow to $2 trillion. All assumptions stem from his fundamental analysis of capital markets and the broader macroeconomic trends that Moas now sees.
Yuri Pripachkin: $30,000–$50,000 by the end of 2018
RACIB [Russian Association of Cryptocurrencies and Blockchain] President Yuri Pripachkin argued in his conversation with one of the Russian Telegram channels that by the end of December, the exchange rate of Bitcoin would vary from $30,000 to $50,000. 2018 is not over yet, but the current figures are ten times less than predicted by the organization’s head.
“We bet on a box of dry wine from Italy. On the eve of December 31, it will be delivered to their office. As Kutuzov said: ‘We lost the battle, but won the war.’ It is cryptocurrencies that have allowed us to talk about the future of the crypto economy. When the market grows, you can always predict further growth, because it is just a movement,” says Pripachkin in a comment for DeCenter.
The president of RACIB also believes that the industry has faced a delay in the process of legislative regulation, “opposition to the traditional banking system and speculative trends in the market itself under conditions of legislative uncertainty.” Therefore, regulation will become a primary issue in cryptocurrency analytics.
“If we forecast the rate of the main cryptocurrencies in the future, the important threshold is the profitability of mining. The profitability of miners who ensure the existence and support of blockchains is in the range of $2,000–$2,600,” Pripachkin added.
Michael Novogratz: $40,000 for 2018
Former hedge fund manager of Fortress, billionaire Michael Novogratz assured viewers in a November 2017 interview that in 13 months, Bitcoin “could easily” grow to $40,000. This statement was made after the rise of the rate to the highest levels in the entire history of Bitcoin. This could happen due to the numerous investments from cryptocurrency users from around the world.
“The industry is going to be hit by a big wave of money, not only from the U.S. but also other countries, so Bitcoin can easily reach $40,000,” as Novogratz said.
After the fall of the price in January 2018, however, the billionaire said that in six to ten months, the price of BTC in the first and second quarters would be fixed at $10,000. Novogratz mentioned the same value of the first digital asset in October 2017 at the time when he opened his Galaxy Digital cryptocurrency merchant bank and invested $150 million there to “play the whole ecosystem.”
In the long-term forecast in terms of capitalization, Michael Novogratz stands in solidarity with analyst Ronnie Moas and assumes that the total value of cryptocurrency assets will exceed $2 trillion in the coming years.
Julian Hosp: $60,000 for a year
The president of the TenX blockchain project, Julian Hosp, said last December that inconsistency for the cryptocurrency market was usual, and Bitcoin exchange rate fluctuations would continue.
“The great correction of 2017 is not over yet, and this means that we have not yet seen the bottom of Bitcoin. I think, however, that Bitcoin will be at around $60,000, but I also do not rule out the possibility of it dropping to $5,000. The question now is what will happen first: a fall or a rise,” said Hosp.
In general, Julian Hosp was right about the sharp fluctuations and the fact that at that time the industry “did not see the bottom.” After that, however, he was leaning toward a bullish trend and thought that growth to $60,000 would definitely take place. In addition, 2018, according to Hosp, had to become the best year for the development of cryptocurrency.
A correction was predicted across the entire cryptocurrency market because users are getting smarter and starting to discard unpromising coins and invest freed up funds into those that are in demand and have real value. “I don’t consider Bitcoin to be a bubble that will simply burst, and everyone will lose their invested funds, but I’m sure that all crypto coins and assets that do not have value and demand will leave the market. The money will go to those digital assets that are really valuable, technological and in demand,” assumed Hosp.
Tone Vays: $100,000 at the end of 2018
Former vice-president of JPMorgan Chase and former head of research at BraveNewCoin Tone Vays in September 2017 prepared a technical analysis on the short-term trend of Bitcoin by taking into account all the important events happening in the industry.
Vays’ figures showed the potential price of Bitcoin to step over $100,000 by the end of 2018. Thanks to this, Bitcoin would have made a multi-trillion-dollar market capitalization. Based on the exponential rate of the Bitcoin growth and taking into account its user base, introduction into circulation, the activity of its developers, trading volumes, and its market capitalization, Tone Vays thought that achieving the $100,000 goal looked quite realistic.
It Gets Worse
In 2019, all forecasts that relate to the cryptocurrency rate will be useless. Bloomberg columnist Barry Ritholtz is sure of it. He calls on his readers to ignore the “predictions” on the value of digital assets, not only because of their inaccuracies but also because people refuse to believe in the randomness of what is happening and the philosophical component of the world.
“The spectrum of predictions ran from the sublime to the criminally negligent to the utterly insane. It got so bad that a website was set up to track all of the Bitcoin prophecies. My colleague Nick Maggiulli notes that chaotic systems can’t be predicted, as they are subject to the Three Body Problem (and its variants),” says Ritholtz.