Throughout the year, Bitcoin kept the whole world in suspense, while the altcoins followed and went down to the bearish hell. During this time, the community has almost become accustomed to the idea that cryptocurrencies as a technology were just a wild fantasy of geeks and cypherpunks. And if compared to a money equivalent, then this is surely a pyramid through and through, a financial bubble and just a scam for newbies. This opinion is widely discussed online and covered on TV. But what if our opinion on this matter was forced to think that cryptocurrencies have failed us? After all, there are those who perceive reality as it is and understand that the price of assets falls within the framework of market laws. Moreover, interest in the technology is only growing. This clearly indicates that the economic and conceptual sides of cryptocurrencies live independently of each other.
And if this is actually the case, then why not look at the situation from a different angle? What if we were to dwell on the thought that cryptocurrencies were not in a financial crisis this year, but rather in a creative one? And such a meat grinder will definitely have an upside. After all, if the financial crisis can destroy the market and its players, then a creative crisis will reset it to the factory settings, but with preservation of data.
Is Everything True Or Have We Been Forced To Think So?
To better understand the situation, let us sort things out. First, let us call to mind that this year began with the end of a strong bullish trend in the market, when Bitcoin was at the limit and almost overcame the price of $20,000 per coin. No such hikes happen without a good reason. No matter how interesting the offer is, the price for it does not grow so much and at such lightning speed. Bitcoin was literally pumped with dollars. And the pumps were provided by CME and CBOE. They went all in and offered Bitcoin futures to all willing to buy. As they say, аsk and you shall receive.
The optimistic mood of the currency holders did not last long, as shortly after the launch of the futures, the crypto market began to deflate. Of course, this was to be expected, but the colossal fall in cryptocurrency prices is unlikely, as this is the result of financial innovations. This year, Bitcoin managed to fall in price by 82%! The Chicago platforms could be blamed for this, if not for one issue: according to the written and unwritten rules of the market, launch of new tools for playing with assets may affect the price but only within the margin of a few percent. But in this case, even experienced analysts could not imagine such a sharp fall. Especially when no one has yet come to their senses after the euphoria with infinitely growing Xs on the altcoin charts. This is where the fun began.
Bitcoin started to “adjust” at the end of December 2017. It just went down by 46%. It then regained its position by 65% and returned to $18,000 per coin. Again, in the wake of the general euphoria, the stockbrokers perceived this movement as a necessary correction for good growth in the near future. After all, during this time, Bitcoin trading volumes have not decreased at all. Some painted a beautiful future with Elliott waves, others saw divergences and filled charts with bullish figures. In the end, both turned out to be wrong. We deceived ourselves, so throughout the year we were watching the movement of coins from a bad angle.
The main question is brewing. What was the reason for such a decline? Is it a worldwide conspiracy or just a planned correction? Here’s a hint – nothing was in vain.
What do we remember about the blockchain and the cryptos of 2017? Endless ICOs, most of which were scams. Aggressive trading, which is was more like manipulating the newbies. The tremendous amounts of funds that were lost to hackers and scammers, as well as a great race for top mining equipment. The market and technology were literally squeezed like a lemon. And at the time, it seemed to be a normal thing to do. And now, there is a sense of shame for everything that happened. Such a promising and flexible technology should not exist in such an uncouth and crude format.
It turned out something like a battle of good versus evil. Everything should have infused, turned into a single whole and acquired an unforgettable taste. Like expensive wine. And that takes time.
The Hoax Of The Century
Everyone understood that sooner or later cryptocurrencies would make a revolution. But what should be done to protect and not destroy this opportunity in its embryo stage? How to divert hyperactive investors from this feeding station and leave some room for new ideas?
We just had to divert the attention of the all-seeing eye (weighty wallets) to something else. And the fortunate current situation with futures has become the main tool for lowering the degree on the market. On this basis, it was much easier to adjust the behavior of Bitcoin and other coins with news to enable new projects to enter the game, and open the technology for fresh ideas and make it more accessible.
During this time, the community even came to the conclusion that mining coins with graphics cards or Asics simply cannot keep up with the concept of modern blockchain technologies. As mentioned earlier, mining is a long, expensive, uninteresting and generally outdated process. Technologies must be developed continuously and very quickly. In geometrical progression, at least.
Any phenomenon in the world can be viewed through the prism of the laws of mathematics. One of them is geometric progression. Progression can be seen everywhere. For example, if we take any time interval and follow the development of technology over it, in each undertaking, there is a long period of increasing turns. Then comes a turning point and further development takes place at an enormous pace. Using the example of cryptocurrencies, it can be represented as follows:
2009 is 1 unit of progress, 2010 - 2 units, 2011 - 4 units, 2012 - 8, 2013 - 16, 2014 - 32, 2015 - 64, 2016 - 128, 2017 - 256, 2018 - 512 and 2019 - already 1024 units! This is how it looks on the chart:
The progress of technological development in the plane of geometric progression.
Impressive performance. This way it is much easier to understand the scale of the upcoming revolution in the future crypto market, right?
What happened in 2018?
In the wake of unprecedented success in 2017, the players completely forgot what the market and the economy are. They have forgotten that there is no growth without declines. And it seemed to everyone that $20,000 per coin could not be the limit. Therefore, the news of the recognition of Bitcoin as a liquid asset by the Chicago platform was bullish. We thought that this would fuel interest in Bitcoin as a technology. And that was right. But no one promised that a strong interest in technology would once again provoke an economic boom in the cryptocurrency market. However, this event has a huge advantage. The market went into hibernation, and blockchain was left alone with its problems. That is how cryptocurrencies provoked a creative crisis.
At that time, the technology was experiencing the stormy results of the past year, when the market was overloaded, it was littered and exhausted with all sorts of ICOs, endless cash infusions and big Xs. In 2017, they began to forget about the technology. Everyone looked only at the place where the money flowed. Bitcoin urgently needed to go on a diet.
With its lingering bearish character, 2018 has shown how important it is to chase after value, not price. And value in this system is determined by quality. The quality of the product and quality of service.
What will happen in 2019?
Knowing what the technology has been going for all these years, and how it had to make way through the crypto jungle, while withstanding all tests, one can try to imagine what will happen to the crypto market in 2019. It is pointless to predict the cost of Bitcoin by the end of 2019, as analysts like to do on Twitter, but rather one should present the most likely development options.
It seems that 2019 will be a period of thaw on the market and the revival of cryptocurrencies as a tool for integrating the blockchain technology into familiar things. People will rethink the value of this tool and will no longer see in it as a get-rich-quick scheme. The outdated PoW algorithm will fade into oblivion, and various variations of the PoS consensus will replace it.
Everyone can create their own currency or token to develop interesting ideas in the global space. For example, the most savvy have already found a way to tokenize their time.
Blockchain will no longer seem so difficult to understand. After all, a smartphone on an Android operating system is not difficult at all? And it is okay if it is called a crypto-smartphone.
What can be said about the rethinking of the cryptos in 2019, if now the banks have changed their minds about it and are starting to understand the true charm of the blockchain in the economy.
Yes, perhaps this is what 2019 will be for the crypto industry. And now is the time to see cryptocurrencies as a technology again, and not a bag with some arbitrary units. How do you imagine the future of cryptocurrencies?