Have you thought that investors have already lost a chance to earn money on the growth of the price of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies after 2013 and 2017? Missed opportunities greatly affect the perception of what lies ahead. Especially when the market does not show its characteristic green color. But one fact must be admitted that the price of Bitcoin will most likely rise to $1,000,000, rather than fall to zero. Its history confirms this fact.
Let us turn to the end of 2017 when the price of the first cryptocurrency conquered a new record value of its price every week. The BTCUSD graph resembled a rocket taking off into space without plans for a soft landing. The fear and greed of investors drove Bitcoin prices up.
After the bloody correction of the entire cryptocurrency market by almost 80 percent since the beginning of 2018, daredevil investors suffered a fiasco and left the market, accusing the first cryptocurrency of being a financial pyramid. The market is really silent and this is evidenced by indicators of a decrease in traffic by more than half from popular exchanges, media, or sites associated with blockchain topics. Many have lost faith in the future super profits of cryptocurrencies.
Despite this, Bitcoin responded with a flat correction on the strong support line at around $6,000, which is 600 percent higher than its price at the beginning of last year. The market shows strong excess profits for patient investors.
Why should the price of Bitcoin increase by at least 16,600 percent? To answer this question, one should understand the reasons for the impulsive growth of Bitcoin prices in the past.
In 2013, Bitcoin grew by 1,500 percent in just 148 days. The reason for this was the undermining of confidence in banks in Cyprus, as well as an increase in demand for Bitcoin in China. In just one month, the Chinese exchange BTC China became the largest in terms of volume. In addition, at about the same time, a number of countries, such as Canada, Germany, and the Netherlands, supported the cryptocurrency, speaking in favor of lightened legislative regulation. And, of course, the news about The Silk Road on American TV channels was also important. One can learn about the remaining reasons for the rise and fall of the Bitcoin price from this article.
In 2017, the rise in Bitcoin prices was due to its legalization in Japan and the launch of futures trading using Bitcoin, as well as the growing popularity of ICOs.
There were also other events that influenced the rise in Bitcoin prices. For example, the crisis in Turkey in 2018. Since the beginning of the year, the rate of the Turkish lira fell by 40 percent, and the decline was about 20 percent during August. In this situation, people bought Bitcoin in an effort to rescue to save their savings from further depreciation.
From this we can draw two conclusions:
The price of Bitcoin begins to grow when cryptocurrencies are being used more, which is a consequence of accepting the advantages of cryptocurrencies over Fiat, in particular, Bitcoin over traditional currencies.
The price of Bitcoin begins to rise in a mass crisis, when a country's economy fails or is corrected, and its people are looking for a way to preserve their savings.
In addition, one should take into account the technical properties of Bitcoin, which affect its value, namely: the deflationary model (only 21 million coins, of which 20 percent is already lost), the security of the asset from physical theft, freedom of movement, and anonymity.
Predicting when the new rapid growth will begin is extremely difficult. “Black Swans” are not predicted, but they can be expected. The main condition for success is that a significant number of branches of the real economy should be in need of Bitcoin.
It all depends on the market infrastructure and the demand for it. Pay attention to what large projects are doing and what their plans are:
Cryptocurrency hedge funds are being set up, preparing to enter the market of institutional investors. The largest cryptocurrency fund, Pantera Capital, has been on the market for five years.
Well-known financial organizations are creating new tools based on leading cryptocurrencies;
Access to cryptocurrency trading is growing through reliable exchanges;
Strong technology companies buy shares of promising startups and create divisions in the blockchain area based on their concerns.
And much more that one can read about between the lines of daily news.
The question arises: “If everything is so good, then why does the price of an asset fall when the news should drag it up?”
This can be explained by the example of a drop of ink and a glass of water. The “effect of a concentrated drop” is that everything that happens inside a crypto community is in a fairly tight space. The outer shell, consisting of the world economy, has not yet allowed the spread of cryptocurrencies to huge masses of people. When this happens, the capitalization of the crypto asset market will find peaks that even the most optimistic investor could not have imagined.
The reason why an economy can accept Bitcoin is an alternative to traditional assets. Global economies are closely intertwined and have a domino effect: when something goes wrong, everyone feels the change. A vivid example of this is the global financial crisis in 2008.
States are aware of the problems of the world economy and are trying to deal with them. One of the most important problems is the preservation of their savings. We need a diversification of investments. In other words, "do not keep all your eggs in one basket." A possible way out of this situation is to invest in reliable crypto assets. Over the past nine years, only Bitcoin has established itself as reliable. It is an alternative asset.
One step from $1,000,000 is one “black swan” similar to the event of accepting Bitcoin in Japan in 2017.
Such a step could be the acquisition of Bitcoin into the reserve fund in any country to diversify risks. Probably, it is already being acquired for these purposes, while there is no strong movement in the market. Whatever happens in the process of large-scale adoption of Bitcoin by society, all we can do is wait and be ready for a new growing trend.