The fate of Bitcoin has been a matter of concern for the crypto community from the moment the world's first cryptocurrency appeared. The recent decline in the price has once again caused heated discussions among market analysts as the irreconcilable struggle between the bulls and the bears continues. DeCenter considered the opposing opinions of the experts on the current dynamics of Bitcoin prices and their forecasts for the future.
Uncertain Crypto Enthusiasts Do Not Want to Decide for Bitcoin
The overwhelming majority of analysts do not give positive or negative forecasts. Strangest of all is the sinking of Bitcoin in June against the backdrop of the relative growth of some other cryptocurrencies, although many crypto enthusiasts predict another growing turn for altcoins and Bitcoin itself.
"Crypto is unpredictable. There are massive spikes and drops. $4500 could be the bottom, but there is nothing preventing $2500 from being the bottom. Likewise, as crypto becomes more mainstream the price tends to rise. Even if the price drops to $1000 there's nothing preventing another surge to $14,000," said London Fintech Week founder Luis Carranza.
Other experts are sure that if a rigid regulatory system is established for the market, the bullish trend will be much more stable. "Central Bankers have been quiet during the cryptocurrency bull-run, and have been doing their due diligence with research and white papers carried out by regulators and experts in the field and the market is anticipating an optimistic view from Central Banks. Regulating cryptocurrency would ease investors’ concerns," said Gavin Pannu, a market analyst and trading mentor at London Academy of Trading (LAT).
As for the bottom price of Bitcoin, then, according to Pannu, Bitcoin volatility is now at its lowest level from a year ago, but a comparison of a bubble-like asset, which had a significant rise compared to the aftermath of a large correction, does not necessarily mean this is the bottom.
Bold Predictions and Ambitious Plans
Let us not ignore the opinion of the notorious Tim Draper, who predicted the growth of Bitcoin to $250,000 by 2022. And, apparently, he does not intend to renounce his prophecy. In 2014, Draper promised Bitcoin would grow to $10,000. And his prediction came true! According to the expert, he has many more fundamental and profound reasons for such an opinion now than a mere focus on the usual fluctuations of an already extremely volatile market. "First of all, Bitcoin does not obey the whims of certain governments and local legislation. It is now above all this. The supply is constant, and the price depends solely on demand. In addition, by using Bitcoin, you can refrain from using traditional banking services and escape surveillance," he said in a recent interview with Bloomberg. Also, in his opinion, to sell Bitcoin means to sell the future to the past. Therefore, he himself is not going to sell it.
Thomas Lee, the co-founder and Managing Partner of the financial research firm Fundstrat Global Advisors, does believe that Bitcoin will demonstrate another "rocket takeoff" by early July. After analyzing the order of 22 currency benchmarks starting from 2010, he said: "The growth of Bitcoin is 1.7 times higher than the duration of the decline, which means that 85 days are needed to restore the previous highs. This is July 2018."
A similar opinion is shared by the crypto enthusiast and founder of DeCenter Evgeny Gordeev. He believes that Bitcoin will soon be able to pass onto a new level of quality, having formally passed to the rank of world guarantor of the security of any certain cryptocurrency, thereby replacing gold that is obsolete in many respects for this role. "Of course, I'm not saying that Bitcoin is a new metal. Even gold is no longer interesting for many people as a metal anymore. But I believe that Bitcoin can become the reserve gold of the new generation, on the basis of which it is possible to create new currencies, as it was with the gold standard hundreds of years ago. In all respects, Bitcoin exceeds both gold and dollars as a reserve element," he commented.
Llew Claasen, executive director of the Bitcoin Foundation, draws more modest, but still very ambitious projections. In his view, the cryptocurrency can reach $40,000 by the end of 2018. "At the same time, about 90% of altcoins can fail or turn out to be scams," he said.
The rate of Bitcoin can also be influenced by factors such as a series of negative, and frankly yellowish, articles and menacing opinions that have been harassing the crypto since the beginning of the year. Some of them warned users against investing in Bitcoin because soon it would be controlled by global regulators, while others claim that it can become useless at any time. "Since cryptocurrencies have no trusted issuer, such as a central bank, they can depreciate at any time," said Yves Mersch, a representative of the European Central Bank.
What Does the Future Hold?
It is hard not to agree with some of the experts, despite the fact that there is no unambiguous forecast for Bitcoin for the near future and, most likely, there will never be one. Kristjan Dekleva, a financial expert engaged in the implementation of financial instruments in the crypto industry, believes that there is no reason to expect a calm in the turbulent sea of Bitcoin in the foreseeable future. "It should take at least 10 years before the world's first cryptocurrency reaches a relative equilibrium," he said.
Former IMF head Kenneth Rogoff gave one of the most pessimistic outlooks on the future fate of Bitcoin: "I think that the cost of Bitcoin will be a tiny part of what it is now. In 10 years, the price of $100 looks more likely than $100,000."
But if you look at the dynamics of the last days and notice the price that once again exceeded $6,000, then such prophecies seem very unrealistic. Only time will tell how events will unfold and who of the experts will turn out to be right in their forecasts.